Agri Odisha - Distant dream
What is the need of today?
FOOD, Education, Shelter, Cloths – in terms of precedence food being the most important and cloth being the least
Poverty can be defined as not having any one of the above
Don’t have
Food – very very poor
Education – very very poor
Shelter – very Poor
Cloths – poor
Per public data 33% of people are below poverty line. (the official poverty line, where the benchmark is Rs 30 per day per person, not sure what a person will buy with Rs 30 today, considering the above needs)
What is the GDP*1 of the state? is it from actual production? what is the budget deficit of the state? (% change from past 20 years?)
What is the source of income?
What is/are the potential route to increase GDP? Growth in Industry? Growth in agriculture sector?
What is the time frame for each options? That is which one will be visible in no time?
*1 – Measuring GDP is complicated (which is why we leave it to the economists), but at its most basic, the calculation can be done in one of two ways: either by adding up what everyone earned in a year (income approach), or by adding up what everyone spent (expenditure method). Logically, both measures should arrive at roughly the same total.
Growth in Industry
What we have -
Resources - Yes
Man power - Yes
Will - moderate
Resistance - maximum
Initiated by - Industrialist , Govt (no mass involvement)
can be started small and grow in 3 dimension? - NO
Can benefit common people - indirect
In the current scenario if we look back and look at the data for past 20 years (from steel plant at Gopalpur, Ganjam to current Posco), what we learn?
Think of
1. The time frame - we have given 20 years?
2. The output - how many projects are in production?
3. What is the impact/contribution on GDP? in % change, and in terms of growth
4. How much it contributed to eliminating poverty?
Question to ourself
1. Is it worth the effort?
2. Is it going to help at least in future? if yes, time frame? cost?
3. How much of the population will be benefited?
4. when can we say that we dont have one person who is not very very poor by choice?
Growth in Agriculture
Resources - Yes
Man power - Yes
Will - moderate
Resistance - maximum
Initiated by - People (mass involvement)
can be started small and grow in 3 dimension? - YES
Can benefit common people - direct
Think of
1. The time frame - let us look at past 20 years?
2. The output - how many agriculture projects are in production?
3. What is the impact/contribution on GDP? in % change, and in terms of growth
4. How much it contributed to eliminating poverty?
Question to yourself
1. have we put enough effort?
2. Is it worth putting effort? if yes, time frame? cost? favorable?
3. How much of the population will be benefited?
4. when can we say that we dont have one person who is not very very poor by choice?
My view -
The above analysis is biased on my view. I do agree. And I am looking forward for an argument on this.
Assumptions are
1. Any project/thought which can be started small and can grow in 3 dimension (resource/Land|manPower utilisation, technology, profitability) will have the quickest results
2. Any project with less investment and quick turnaround has more chance of success due to visibility which will encourage people to opt in.
3. Any project which involves people on their own (opt in) has more chance of success
In our state, to me industrial revolution is failed. The reasons may be many, and there is nothing to blame either the Govt or the poeple. It is just that we are not ready for it yet. People who are not able to fulfil their basic needs can not be fed on a 10 year plan.
Obviously, they would need instant results in fulfilling their basic needs. This can only be provided with creating employment(earning capability) at micro economic level, with plans to stimulate individual growth. In a state where 70% people are dependent on farming/ agriculture, which sector needs attention and improvement. I think even govt realises that, evidence is http://www.agriorissa.org/pdf/State_Agriculture_Policy_2013_e.pdf .
Ok policy is quite interesting and potential.
Q1.Does it have a defined goal/objective, if yes, what is the time frame? what is the roadmap? what are the controls over implementing , auditing? is there a defined PDCA (plan–do–check–adjust) cycle defined?
Q2. How many are aware of this policy and planned initiative ?
Q3. Who is responsible to create the awareness?
Q4. Please ask your local agriculture officer if he is aware of it? If yes, if he understands it? If yes, if he has a role in implementing / promoting it? if Yes, does he know how? If Yes, is he working on it?
I am not sure if we have +ve answer for these, the policy is 6 months old, but is it ready for harvesting?
What next?
How to achieve results
1. Education
2. Corporate Farming (to benefit from scale of economy)
3. Private/public ventures
4. Promoting scientific farming with individual farmers (creating visible differences in productivity which will motivate other farmers )
Nutshell , get together (demonstrate strength), educate yourself, educate others, force public servants to deliver, use RTI to oil the system so that it will perform better and faster.
